Johnson aiming for fourth Brickyard 400 win

Autoracing Betting Lines

07/20/2010 - Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Sunday, July 25. Race: Brickyard 400. Site: Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Track: 2.5- mile rectangle. Start time: 1:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 160. Miles: 400. 2009 winner: Jimmie Johnson. Television: ESPN. Radio: IMS Radio Network/SIRIUS NASCAR Radio.

After taking a week off, the Sprint Cup Series heads to the famed Indianapolis Motor Speedway for one of the most prestigious races of the season -- the Brickyard 400.

This year, Jimmie Johnson is looking to join an elite group of drivers who have won four or more times at Indy. Johnson, the four-time defending series champion, has won the 400-mile race at Indy the last two years and three of the last four.

His Hendrick Motorsports teammate, Jeff Gordon, won the Brickyard 400 in 1994 (inaugural year), '98, 2001 and '04. IndyCar legends A.J. Foyt, Al Unser and Rick Mears have four victories each in the Indianapolis 500. Formula One star Michael Schumacher holds the record for most wins at Indy. Schumacher won the United States Grand Prix here five times, including four in a row from 2003-06.

"It would be a huge honor to join the list of four time winners," Johnson said. "Just to win there once is a career maker for anyone, so to have three victories, there means a lot to me. When I went to do the winners' circle appearance a month or so ago, I was there with Rick Mears and to see him as a four-time winner and to talk about his experiences at the track and what it's done for his life and career was neat. It helped me open my eyes to his world and the open-wheel world there."

One year ago, Johnson became the first driver to win the Brickyard 400 in consecutive years. Johnson held off a furious charge from his teammate Mark Martin in the closing laps. Juan Pablo Montoya had the car to beat at Indy, as he led 116 of 160 laps. But Montoya was caught speeding on pit road during the final round of stops and had to serve a pass-through penalty. Montoya, who was hoping to become the first driver to win both the Brickyard 400 and the Indianapolis 500, wound up finishing 11th. His Indy 500 victory came in 2000.

Earlier this year, Montoya's team owner, Chip Ganassi, made motorsports history by becoming the first owner to win the Daytona 500 and the Indianapolis 500 in the same year. Jamie McMurray won at Daytona for Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates in February, while Dario Franchitti captured the victory at Indianapolis for Target Chip Ganassi Racing in May.

"At the big events, our season has been pretty good," Ganassi said. "Obviously, with the wins at Daytona and Indianapolis, we have the big events covered."

Now the question is whether McMurray or Montoya can give Ganassi a win in the Brickyard 400 on Sunday.

In the 16-year history of the Brickyard 400, the winner of this race has gone on to clinch the Cup championship that season eight times, including the last two years with Johnson.

Kevin Harvick, who won the Brickyard 400 for Richard Childress Racing in 2003, currently holds a 103-point lead over Gordon. Harvick was 25th in points at this time last year.

"Indy is just like Daytona, and everybody wants to win that particular race," said Harvick, who finished sixth one year ago at Indy. "For us last year, that was kind of where the turnaround started with our new cars."

Gordon won the Brickyard 400 and the series title in 1998 and 2001. Presently second in points, he has been winless in the last 48 races, which is now the longest drought in his illustrious Cup career. However, Gordon has finished third, fourth or fifth in the last five races.

"I think the only frustration I see is letting the wins that I feel like we really could have pulled off slip away," Gordon said. "Those are a little frustrating to me, but I'm really proud of the top fives we've put together. I'd like to get back to being more dominant. We need to lead more laps. That's what was putting us in position to win races earlier in the season. We got off that a little bit. We weren't leading like we were. That's what's gonna get us back into victory lane. I feel like we're right there, though. We're just so close."

Winning at Indianapolis has always been a lifelong dream for drivers, including Stewart-Haas Racing teammates and Indiana natives Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman. Stewart, from nearby Columbus, IN, has two victories in the Brickyard 400 (2005 and '07), while Newman, who grew up roughly 140 miles north of Indianapolis in South Bend, has only one top-10 finish in nine starts at Indy. He finished fourth in the 2002 race.

"For both of us growing up from Indiana, it's a special event for the whole series in general, but when you've grown up near that speedway, it's a big goal and a lifelong dream for us to have that opportunity," Stewart said.

Forty-seven teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Brickyard 400.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.

Big 12 Conference betting odds

Work left to do: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Texas joins Texas A&M and Kansas as locks after getting league win No. 11. Texas Tech greatly helped its own hopes and crippled OK State's with the two-point win Saturday. Is K-State the last reasonable hopeful? Could be an elimination match in Stillwater on Tuesday, at least for the Cowboys.

Work left to do:

Texas Tech [18-11 (7-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 12] A critical two-point win over OK State leaves the Red Raiders with Baylor and at Iowa State left. Get both and the Red Raiders likely are good to go. Get one and there could be some interesting comparisons with a K-State team that could finish two or three games "ahead" of them in the standings but doesn't have any of the quality wins Texas Tech has. Not a lot in nonconference play (against Arkansas in Little Rock being the best win, by far) to lean on.

Oklahoma State [18-9 (5-8), RPI: 50, SOS: 35] Still without a road win, the Cowboys now need to win two on the road just to get to .500 in conference play. It's hard to recall a team (OK, other than Clemson) falling so precipitously from lock status to almost certainly out of the NCAAs at this point. There are wins to be had in the last three, including a very big home game against K-State on Tuesday, but this team is reeling. Can you tell the pressure to win is getting to them with the way the final possession played out at Texas Tech? There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but if the Pokes don't right this very, very soon, that won't be enough.

Kansas State [20-9 (9-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 96] It pays to be in the Big 12 North. The nine league wins are Colorado (twice), Missouri (twice), Iowa State (twice), Baylor, Nebraska and (a good one against) Texas. That helps explain the middling computer profile. The win over USC is nice, but the nonconference leaves a lot to be desired. The game at OK State in Stillwater on Tuesday is huge, as it could KO the Cowboys and leave K-State with a home date against Oklahoma with which to work.